An evaluation of quantitative and qualitative methods of predicting the 2002 FIFA World Cup

O'Donoghue, P. G.; Dubitzky, W.; Lopes, P.; Berrar, D.; Lagan, K.; Hassan, D.; Bairner, A. and Darby, P. (2004). An evaluation of quantitative and qualitative methods of predicting the 2002 FIFA World Cup. Journal of Sports Sciences, 22(6) pp. 513–514.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410410001675423

Abstract

The purpose of the current study was to attempt to predict the 2002 FIFA World Cup using a broad spectrum of methods. The methods ranged from the qualitative to the quantitative. The predictions were evaluated by awarding 1 point for each round 2 participant identified, 1 point for each group winner or runner-up identified, 2 points for each quarter-finalist identified, 3 points for each semi-finalist identified and 5 points for correctly identifying the winner of the 3rd place play-off or the final. This gives a maximum mark of 78 for any prediction. It was not possible for all methods to use the same data (although this would have been desirable) due to the very nature of the methods. Some relied on objective facts, whereas others used more personal subjective knowledge and experience.

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