Calculations of net present value for a small modular fusion power plant under a range of scenarios

Webbe-Wood, David and Nuttall, William J. (2023). Calculations of net present value for a small modular fusion power plant under a range of scenarios. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy, 176(4) pp. 187–196.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1680/jener.21.00103

Abstract

If, as suggested by proponents, fusion small modular reactors (SMRs) can be developed faster than envisaged by the multi-national ITER/DEMO programme, the question remains as to whether such reactors will be a viable commercial proposition. Such viability will depend on a range of factors, including capital costs, income from the sale of electricity and the cost of capital. To investigate these effects, Net Present Values (NPVs) were calculated for a range of scenarios for both First of a Kind (FOAK) and Nth of a Kind (NOAK) plants supplying electricity to the United Kingdom grid commencing in 2040. Calculations have also been carried out to delineate the “space” in which positive NPVs would be obtained. These calculations show that there are combinations of capital costs, electricity prices and costs of capital in which a fusion SMR plant would be financially viable. These calculations, being based on uncertain costs and incomes, are necessarily uncertain. The calculations show that minimisation of capital costs must be a key goal for those seeking to develop a fusion SMR as a commercial proposition.