Expert Systems - From Promises to Prospects: Investigations of Occupational Problem Solving Towards a More Certain Commercial Role for Knowledge-Based Systems

Church, Charles Walter (1994). Expert Systems - From Promises to Prospects: Investigations of Occupational Problem Solving Towards a More Certain Commercial Role for Knowledge-Based Systems. PhD thesis The Open University.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21954/ou.ro.0000ff27

Abstract

A range of occupational problem solvers are investigated using knowledge acquisition techniques suitable for the commercial environment. The objectives are both to understand the mechanisms by which experts routinely solve tough problems which comprise their jobs and to determine what commercially successful role expert and knowledge-based systems may take in supporting them.

A series of problem solving components are found, common between different experts, which seem to be related to the ways in which experts make problems more manageable by dividing them and solving sub-problems on a serial basis. Strategies for problem division and combining the sub-problem results are found. In some cases the nature of the problem does not permit the experts to make a good solution even when using such strategies.

Based on the investigations a range of factors are found which predispose to success or failure to implement commercially viable knowledge-based systems. Additional new potentially worth while areas for knowledge-based technology are suggested.

A passing commentary is made on the appropriateness of the KADS methodology for knowledge-based systems and as a component of a combined knowledge-based and conventional method.

A concluding summary is made which suggests that expert and knowledge-based systems have a good commercial future provided that the technology is carefully targeted only at those applications where it can be successful.