The Paris Agreement—Implications for greenhouse gas removal and zero emissions energy production

Chris, Robert (2019). The Paris Agreement—Implications for greenhouse gas removal and zero emissions energy production. In: Letcher, Trevor M. ed. Managing Global Warming: An Interface of Technology and Human Issues. Academic Press, pp. 17–66.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814104-5.00002-8

Abstract

Understanding the role of greenhouse gas removal in meeting the Paris Agreement target requires an appreciation of both its scale and the interdependence of available policy options. I show how assessing policy portfolios by reference to scalability and interdependence defines the limits of effective policy action. Without greenhouse gas removal, the window of opportunity to transition from fossil to zero emission fuels will close by 2020 or 2032 to hold temperature increase to 1.8°C and 2°C respectively; 1.5°C is already unachievable. If greenhouse gas removal is to be relied on to attenuate the transition to close-to-zero greenhouse gas emissions, its deployment should begin in earnest within the next decade if its peak is to be kept below 5 Gt(C) year^{− 1} (~ 18 Gt(CO2) year^{− 1}). In addition, all scenarios that deliver the Paris Agreement target by 2100 require the annual consumption of zero emissions energy to increase at least 20-fold from its 2014 base.

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