Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning: with reference to transport and energy

Baker, Timothy Michael (1981). Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning: with reference to transport and energy. PhD thesis The Open University.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21954/ou.ro.0000de11

Abstract

In this thesis I have set out my experiences of forecasting in the long term. (I have taken long term to be anything beyond 5 to 10 years). I have set forecasting in its context as a component of the planning process and have related the problems of forecasting to the ensuing problems in planning.

The main areas I have covered are Transport and Energy, in a UK context.However I have touched on other fields and I expect the conclusions I have drawn about forecasting and planning to apply to many fields.

The thesis is in two parts plus appendices.

In the first part I report three substantial pieces of research. They illustrate many of the problems associated with forecasting, and I examine possible solutions to these problems.

In the second part I describe how forecasts are made and some of the problems inherent in forecasting. I then examine why forecasts appear to be necessary in the planning/ policy making process. I conclude with the implications that my views on forecasting.

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