How to assign probabilities if you must

Albers, C.J. and Schaafsma, W. (2001). How to assign probabilities if you must. Statistica Neerlandica, 55(3) pp. 346–357.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9574.00173

Abstract

Empirical evidence can sometimes be incorporated in a probabilistic analysis by conditioning with respect to the observations. Usually, the underlying probability distribution and also the conditional distribution are not completely known. The assignment of probabilities will then require a compromise. The making of such a compromise goes beyond mathematical theory: a statistical discussion is needed. It depends on the context whether the result of such discussion is almost compelling, reasonable, or not really agreeable. This is illustrated by means of a simple example from the area of predictive distributional inference.

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