Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200

Barrand, Nicholas E.; Hindmarsh, Richard C.A.; Arthern, Robert J.; Williams, C. Rosie; Mouginot, Jérémie; Scheuchl, Bernd; Rignot, Eric; Ligtenberg, Stefan R.M.; Van Den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Cook, Alison J. and Simonsen, Sebastian B. (2013). Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200. Journal of Glaciology, 59(215) pp. 397–409.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J139

Abstract

The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response using a linearized method. Volume change estimates of the APIS resulting from surface mass-balance anomalies calculated by the regional model RACMO2, forced by A1B and E1 scenarios of the global models ECHAM5 and HadCM3, predicted net negative sea-level contributions between –0.5 and –12 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2200. Increased glacier flow due to ice thickening returned ∼15% of the increased accumulation to the sea by 2100 and ∼30% by 2200. The likely change in volume of the APIS by 2200 in response to imposed 10 and 20 km retreats of the grounding line at individual large outlet glaciers in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula, ranged between 0.5 and 3.5 mm SLE per drainage basin. Ensemble calculations of APIS volume change resulting from imposed grounding-line retreat due to ice-shelf break-up scenarios applied to all 20 of the largest drainage basins in Palmer Land (covering ∼40% of the total area of APIS) resulted in net sea-level contributions of 7–16 mm SLE by 2100, and 10–25 mm SLE by 2200. Inclusion of basins in the northern peninsula and realistic simulation of grounding-line movement for AP outlet glaciers will improve future projections.

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About

• Item ORO ID
• 48980
• Item Type
• Journal Item
• ISSN
• 0022-1430
• Project Funding Details

• Funded Project Name	Project ID	Funding Body
  ice2sea programme	226375	European Union FP7
  Polar Science for Planet Earth programme	Not Set	British Antarctic Survey
  Netherlands Polar Program	Not Set	Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO/ALW)

• Academic Unit or School
• Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences
  Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
• Copyright Holders
• © 2013 The Authors
• Depositing User
• Tamsin Edwards