A dynamic spatial model for demographic planning

Wu, Belinda; Birkin, Mark and Rees, Phil (2011). A dynamic spatial model for demographic planning. In: Proceeding of 19th International Conference on Geoinformatics, 24-26 Jun 2011, Shanghai, pp. 1–4.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/GeoInformatics.2011.5980757

Abstract

Individual Based Models (IBMs) that study populations through who the individuals are, where they live, and how they live within a spatial framework provides a more holistic approach to demographic planning than the traditional population models. MicroSimulation Models (MSMs) and Agent Based Models (ABMs) are two closely allied IBMs. This paper will introduce a dynamic spatial MSM that simulates the UK population through discrete demographic processes at a fine spatial scale from 2001 to 2031. Moses also brings in the strengths of ABM to enable the modeling of heterogeneous agents to represent sub-populations with distinctive characteristics within the system. The hybrid model enables us monitor the evolution of population structures and various demographic changes on a fine geographical scale, as well as provides detailed information for demographic planning/policy making.

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