Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies

Boyle, Godfrey and Bentley, Roger (2008). Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies. Environment and Planning B, 35(4) pp. 609–626.




A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast:
Group1: quantitative analyses that predict global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020;
Group2: forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast’s time-horizon (typically 2020 or 2030);
Group 3: non-quantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future.
The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that Group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

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