Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies

Boyle, Godfrey and Bentley, Roger (2008). Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies. Environment and Planning B, 35(4) pp. 609–626.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1068/b33063t

URL: http://www.envplan.com/abstract.cgi?id=b33063t

Abstract

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast:
Group1: quantitative analyses that predict global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020;
Group2: forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast’s time-horizon (typically 2020 or 2030);
Group 3: non-quantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future.
The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that Group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Viewing alternatives

Metrics

Item Actions

Export

You can export this page using these formats Digital Object Identifier - DOI

About

• Item ORO ID
• 3957
• Item Type
• Journal Item
• ISSN
• 0308-2164
• Extra Information
• Boyle, B.; Bentley, R. 2008. The definitive, peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Environment and Planning B, volume 35, issue 4, 609-626, 2008, doi:10.1068/b33063t
• Keywords
• Oil depletion; peak oil; global oil production; oil production forecasts
• Academic Unit or School
• Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Engineering and Innovation
  Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
• Depositing User
• Godfrey Boyle