Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: a cognitive style framework

Franco, L. Alberto; Meadows, Maureen and Armstrong, Steven J. (2013). Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: a cognitive style framework. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4) pp. 723–734.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.02.008

Abstract

In recent years, scenario planning has enjoyed wide acceptance among practitioners and academics as a decision support aid in the strategy formulation process. Although different approaches to scenario planning are possible, most of them are usually deployed in a group workshop format and led by a facilitator. This work setting for scenario planning activity has led managerial cognition scholars to argue that the cognitive diversity of the workshop participants is likely to be a critical determinant of the effectiveness of scenario planning interventions. The purpose of this paper is thus to explore this proposition further, by articulating a theoretical framework to inform the investigation of the role of cognitive style in scenario planning interventions. Specifically, the framework highlights the potential impact of individual differences in ways of perceiving and judging on participants' observed behaviours within the scenario planning workshops. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of our framework for research and practice of scenario planning workshops.

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