Allocating the weights in the linear opinion pool

Genest, Christian and McConway, Kevin (1990). Allocating the weights in the linear opinion pool. Journal of Forecasting, 9(1) pp. 53–73.



A standard approach to the combination of probabilistic opinions involves taking a weighted linear average of the individuals distributions. This paper reviews some of the possible interpretations that have been proposed for these weights in the literature on expert use. Several paradigms for selecting weights are also considered. Special attention is devoted to the Bayesian mechanism used for updating expert weights in the face of new information. An asymptotic result is proved which highlights the importance of choosing the initial weights carefully.

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