Modelling a traffic network with missing data

Whitlock, Mark E. and Queen, Catriona M. (2000). Modelling a traffic network with missing data. Journal of Forecasting, 19(7) pp. 561–574.




Whitlock and Queen (1998) developed a dynamic graphical model for forecasting traffic flows at a number of sites at a busy traffic junction in Kent, UK. Some of the data collection sites at this junction have been faulty over the data collection period and so there are missing series in the multivariate problem. Here we adapt the model developed in Whitlock and Queen (1998) to accommodate these missing data. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to provide forecasts of the missing series, which in turn are used to produce forecasts for some of the other series. The methods are used on part of the network and shown to be very promising.

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