Quantifying expert opinion in linear regression problems

Garthwaite, Paul H. and Dickey, James M. (1988). Quantifying expert opinion in linear regression problems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 50(3) pp. 462–474.

URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2345708

Abstract

This paper describes a method for choosing a natural conjugate prior distribution for a normal linear sampling model. A person using the method to quantify his/her opinions performs specified elicitation tasks. The hyperparameters of the conjugate distribution are estimated from the elicited values. The method is designed to require elicitation tasks that people can perform competently and introduces a type of task not previously reported. A property of the method is that the assessed variance matrices are certain to be positive definite. The method is sufficiently simple to implement with an interactive computer program on a microcomputer.

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