Charting the Path to Stronger and More Stable International Environmental Agreements: Insights from Mathematical Modelling and Game Theory

Kbaier, Dhouha; Kenny, Ian; McJury, Mark and Fairchild, Richard (2024). Charting the Path to Stronger and More Stable International Environmental Agreements: Insights from Mathematical Modelling and Game Theory. In: IEEE/MTS OCEANS 2024, 14-18 Apr 2024, Singapore.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANS51537.2024.10682224

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of citizens' attitudes towards climate change and environmental risk to assess their influence on their governments’ willingness to comply with their obligations under the International Environmental Agreements (IEAs). Through mathematical modelling and game theory, the study reveals that citizens' attitudes are not maintained for sufficiently long periods of time to have a sustained impact on political will, necessitating novel approaches to establish sustained commitment to environmental and climatic risk mitigation efforts. Drawing insights from surveys and innovative machine learning techniques, the research underscores the complexities inherent in achieving effective IEAs and highlights the potential of integrating behavioral economics and collective intelligence to address global environmental challenges.

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