Response to “Limitations in the Hilbert Transform Approach to Locating Solar Cycle Terminators” by R. Booth

Leamon, Robert J.; McIntosh, Scott W.; Chapman, Sandra C. and Watkins, Nicholas W. (2021). Response to “Limitations in the Hilbert Transform Approach to Locating Solar Cycle Terminators” by R. Booth. Solar Physics, 296, article no. 151.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01897-z

Abstract

Booth (Solar Phys.296, 108, 2021; hereafter B21) is essentially a critique of the Hilbert transform techniques used in our paper (Leamon et al., Solar Phys.295, 36, 2020; hereafter L20) to predict the termination of solar cycles. Here we respond to his arguments; our methodology and parameter choices do extract a mathematically robust signature of terminators from the historical sunspot record. We agree that the attempt in L20 to extrapolate beyond the sunspot record gives a failed prediction for the next terminator of May 2020, and we identify both a possible cause and remedy here. However, we disagree with the B21 assessment that the likely termination of Solar Cycle 24 is two years after the date predicted in L20, and we show why.

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