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PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate

Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Rangel, Thiago F.; Pereira, Elisa B.; Tran, Giang T. and Wllkinson, Richard D. (2019). PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(12) pp. 5137–5155.

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DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5137-2019
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Abstract

We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatio-temporal description of the climate of the last 5×106 years. The 5×106-year time frame is interesting for a range of paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses the evolution of humans. However, the choice of time frame was primarily pragmatic; tectonic changes can be neglected to first order, so that it is reasonable to consider climate forcing restricted to the Earth's orbital configuration, ice-sheet state, and the concentration of atmosphere CO2. The approach uses the Gaussian process emulation of the singular value decomposition of ensembles of the intermediate-complexity atmosphere–ocean GCM (general circulation model) PLASIM-GENIE. Spatial fields of bioclimatic variables of surface air temperature (warmest and coolest seasons) and precipitation (wettest and driest seasons) are emulated at 1000-year intervals, driven by time series of scalar boundary-condition forcing (CO2, orbit, and ice volume) and assuming the climate is in quasi-equilibrium. Paleoclimate anomalies at climate model resolution are interpolated onto the observed modern climatology to produce a high-resolution spatio-temporal paleoclimate reconstruction of the Pliocene–Pleistocene.

Item Type: Journal Item
Copyright Holders: 2019 The Author(s)
ISSN: 1991-959X
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
Plausible Pathways to ParisNE/P015093/1NERC
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Item ID: 68467
Depositing User: Philip Holden
Date Deposited: 10 Dec 2019 16:01
Last Modified: 21 Dec 2019 15:21
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/68467
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