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Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

Cornford, S. L.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.; Ng, E. G.; Le Brocq, A. M.; Gladstone, R. M.; Edwards, T. L.; Shannon, S. R.; Agosta, C.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Krinner, G.; Ligtenberg, S. R. M.; Timmermann, R. and Vaughan, D. G. (2015). Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate. The Cryosphere, 9(4) pp. 1579–1600.

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DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015
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Abstract

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.

Item Type: Journal Item
Copyright Holders: 2015 Author(s)
ISSN: 1994-0424
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
Not Set226375European Union FP7
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Item ID: 48971
Depositing User: Tamsin Edwards
Date Deposited: 21 Mar 2017 10:56
Last Modified: 13 Dec 2018 19:02
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/48971
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