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Ontology Forecasting in Scientific Literature: Semantic Concepts Prediction based on Innovation-Adoption Priors

Cano Basave, Amparo; Osborne, Francesco and Salatino, Angelo (2016). Ontology Forecasting in Scientific Literature: Semantic Concepts Prediction based on Innovation-Adoption Priors. In: 20th International Conference on Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management (EKAW 2016), 19-23 November 2016, Bologna, Italy (forthcoming).

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Abstract

The ontology engineering research community has focused for many years on supporting the creation, development and evolution of ontologies. Ontology forecasting, which aims at predicting semantic changes in an ontology, represents instead a new challenge. In this paper, we want to give a contribution to this novel endeavour by focusing on the task of forecasting semantic concepts in the research domain. Indeed, ontologies representing scientific disciplines contain only research topics that are already popular enough to be selected by human experts or automatic algorithms. They are thus unfit to support tasks which require the ability of describing and exploring the forefront of research, such as trend detection and horizon scanning. We address this issue by introducing the Semantic Innovation Forecast (SIF) model, which predicts new concepts of an ontology at time t + 1, using only data available at time t. Our approach relies on lexical innovation and adoption information extracted from historical data. We evaluated the SIF model on a very large dataset consisting of over one million scientific papers belonging to the Computer Science domain: the outcomes show that the proposed approach offers a competitive boost in mean average precision-at-ten compared to the baselines when forecasting over 5 years.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Copyright Holders: 2016 The Authors
Keywords: topic evolution; ontology forecasting; ontology evolution; latent semantics; LDA; innovation priors; adoption priors; scholarly data
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Knowledge Media Institute (KMi)
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
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Item ID: 47330
Depositing User: Francesco Osborne
Date Deposited: 29 Sep 2016 08:47
Last Modified: 25 Sep 2017 12:56
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/47330
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