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Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Mercure, J-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H. and Chewpreecha, U. (2016). Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector. Earth System Dynamics, 7(1) pp. 119–132.

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DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-119-2016
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Abstract

We present a carbon-cycle–climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM- ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response pat- terns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean tem- peratures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change.

Item Type: Journal Item
Copyright Holders: 2016 The Authors
ISSN: 2190-4987
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
ERMITAGE265170EU FP7
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Interdisciplinary Research Centre: Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR)
International Development & Inclusive Innovation
Item ID: 45358
Depositing User: Philip Holden
Date Deposited: 16 Feb 2016 11:47
Last Modified: 10 Feb 2017 13:12
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/45358
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