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PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R,; Garthwaite, P. H.; Fraedrich, K.; Lunkeit, F.; Kirk, E.; Labriet, M.; Kanudia, A. and Babonneau, F. (2014). PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment. Geoscientific Model Development, 7 pp. 433–451.

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Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS (Planet Simulator coupled with the efficient numerical terrestrial scheme). Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5◦ resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and non-CO2 radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, the validation of the simulator (with respect to empirical data) and the validation of the emulator (with respect to high-complexity models). We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty.

Item Type: Journal Item
Copyright Holders: 2014 The Authors
ISSN: 1991-9603
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
Keywords: climate; emulation; impacts; integrated assessment; model coupling
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Mathematics and Statistics
Research Group: International Development & Inclusive Innovation
Item ID: 39598
Depositing User: Philip Holden
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2014 15:28
Last Modified: 02 Jun 2019 11:56
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