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Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies

Boyle, Godfrey and Bentley, Roger (2008). Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies. Environment and Planning B, 35(4) pp. 609–626.

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URL: http://www.envplan.com/abstract.cgi?id=b33063t
DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: https://doi.org/10.1068/b33063t
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Abstract

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast:
Group1: quantitative analyses that predict global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020;
Group2: forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast’s time-horizon (typically 2020 or 2030);
Group 3: non-quantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future.
The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that Group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Item Type: Journal Item
ISSN: 0308-2164
Extra Information: Boyle, B.; Bentley, R. 2008. The definitive, peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Environment and Planning B, volume 35, issue 4, 609-626, 2008, doi:10.1068/b33063t
Keywords: Oil depletion; peak oil; global oil production; oil production forecasts
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Engineering and Innovation
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Item ID: 3957
Depositing User: Godfrey Boyle
Date Deposited: 06 Jul 2007
Last Modified: 07 Dec 2018 13:07
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/3957
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