The Open UniversitySkip to content

Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies

Boyle, Godfrey and Bentley, Roger (2008). Global oil depletion: forecasts and methodologies. Environment and Planning B, 35(4) pp. 609–626.

Full text available as:
PDF (Not Set) - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Download (138kB)
DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link:
Google Scholar: Look up in Google Scholar


A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast:
Group1: quantitative analyses that predict global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020;
Group2: forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast’s time-horizon (typically 2020 or 2030);
Group 3: non-quantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future.
The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that Group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Item Type: Journal Item
ISSN: 0308-2164
Extra Information: Boyle, B.; Bentley, R. 2008. The definitive, peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Environment and Planning B, volume 35, issue 4, 609-626, 2008, doi:10.1068/b33063t
Keywords: Oil depletion; peak oil; global oil production; oil production forecasts
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Engineering and Innovation
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Item ID: 3957
Depositing User: Godfrey Boyle
Date Deposited: 06 Jul 2007
Last Modified: 07 Dec 2018 13:07
Share this page:


Altmetrics from Altmetric

Citations from Dimensions

Download history for this item

These details should be considered as only a guide to the number of downloads performed manually. Algorithmic methods have been applied in an attempt to remove automated downloads from the displayed statistics but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of the figures.

Actions (login may be required)

Policies | Disclaimer

© The Open University   contact the OU