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Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

Labriet, Maryse; Joshi, Santosh R.; Vielle, Marc; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard and Babonneau, Frédéric (2015). Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20(7) pp. 1111–1136.

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DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7
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Abstract

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator - Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of addi- tional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale.

Item Type: Journal Item
Copyright Holders: 2013 Springer Science+Business Media
ISSN: 1573-1596
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
ERMITAGE265170EUFP7
Keywords: climate change; heating; cooling; adaptation; energy system; bottom-up model; computable general equilibrium model; rebound effect
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Research Group: International Development & Inclusive Innovation
Item ID: 39003
Depositing User: Philip Holden
Date Deposited: 19 Nov 2013 10:23
Last Modified: 30 May 2019 13:33
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/39003
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