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Quantifying expert opinion for modelling fauna habitat distributions

Al-Awadhi, Shafiqah A. and Garthwaite, Paul H. (2006). Quantifying expert opinion for modelling fauna habitat distributions. Computational Statistics, 21(1) pp. 121–140.

DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-006-0255-x
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Abstract

The practical elicitation of expert beliefs about logistic regression models is considered. An experiment is reported in which ecologists quantified their prior beliefs about the relationship between various environmental attributes and the habitat distribution of certain rare and endangered fauna. Prior distributions were elicited from the ecologists and combined with sample data to form posterior distributions. The elicitations method was proposed by Garthwaite and Al-Awadhi(2004) and is implemented through an interactive graphical computer program. Classical stepwise logistic regression and alternative forms of prior distribution are compared using cross validation. Data on the environmental attributes have been mapped and stored in a GIS database and the posterior distributions can be used to predict the probability of a species' presence/absence at any site in the database.

Item Type: Journal Article
Copyright Holders: 2006 Physica-Verlag
ISSN: 1613-9658
Keywords: expert opinion; assessment task; prior probability; logistic regression model
Academic Unit/Department: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Item ID: 3472
Depositing User: Users 2598 not found.
Date Deposited: 15 Aug 2006
Last Modified: 02 Aug 2016 12:55
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/3472
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