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Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling

Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R. (2010). Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(21) L21707.

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DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045137
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Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models are widely used tools for the evaluation of environmental policy. In order to include uncertainty estimates or derive optimal policies, highly efficient calculations of global change are generally required, often using pattern scaling to derive spatial distributions of change. Here we develop an alternative to pattern scaling that allows for nonlinear spatio-temporal behaviour. We use an intermediate complexity AOGCM to perform an ensemble of simulations for a range of greenhouse gas concentration profiles and model parameters. We decompose climate change fields into a series of spatial patterns and then derive the functional dependence of the dominant patterns on model input. This allows us to rapidly reconstruct a good approximation to the simulated change from an arbitrary concentration profile (without the need for further simulation). The efficiency of the approach paves the way for incorporating improved calculations of climate change into integrated assessment, including location-dependent estimates of uncertainty.

Item Type: Journal Article
Copyright Holders: 2010 American Geophysical Union
ISSN: 0094-8276
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
Not SetNot SetUK Natural Environmental Research Council through QUEST?DESIRE [grant number NE/E007600/1]
Not SetNot SetFrench Ministère de l�Écologie, de l�Énergie, du Développement durable et de la Mer through the Programme Gestion et Impacts du Changement Climatique [grant number G.3?0006032]
Keywords: emulation; dimension reduction; GENIE-2; integrated assessment
Academic Unit/Department: Science
Science > Environment, Earth and Ecosystems
Interdisciplinary Research Centre: Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR)
Item ID: 24659
Depositing User: Philip Holden
Date Deposited: 12 Nov 2010 11:15
Last Modified: 06 Nov 2013 15:31
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/24659
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