Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R.
(2010).
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| DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045137 |
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| Google Scholar: | Look up in Google Scholar |
Abstract
Integrated Assessment Models are widely used tools for the evaluation of environmental policy. In order to include uncertainty estimates or derive optimal policies, highly efficient calculations of global change are generally required, often using pattern scaling to derive spatial distributions of change. Here we develop an alternative to pattern scaling that allows for nonlinear spatio-temporal behaviour. We use an intermediate complexity AOGCM to perform an ensemble of simulations for a range of greenhouse gas concentration profiles and model parameters. We decompose climate change fields into a series of spatial patterns and then derive the functional dependence of the dominant patterns on model input. This allows us to rapidly reconstruct a good approximation to the simulated change from an arbitrary concentration profile (without the need for further simulation). The efficiency of the approach paves the way for incorporating improved calculations of climate change into integrated assessment, including location-dependent estimates of uncertainty.
| Item Type: | Article | |||||||||
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| Copyright Holders: | 2010 American Geophysical Union | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 0094-8276 | |||||||||
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| Keywords: | emulation; dimension reduction; GENIE-2; integrated assessment | |||||||||
| Academic Unit/School: | Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) |
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| Interdisciplinary Research Centre: | Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR) International Development & Inclusive Innovation |
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| Item ID: | 24659 | |||||||||
| Depositing User: | Philip Holden | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 12 Nov 2010 11:15 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 10 Feb 2017 04:10 | |||||||||
| URI: | http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/24659 | |||||||||
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