Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling

Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R. (2010). Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(21) L21707.

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DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045137

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Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models are widely used tools for the evaluation of environmental policy. In order to include uncertainty estimates or derive optimal policies, highly efficient calculations of global change are generally required, often using pattern scaling to derive spatial distributions of change. Here we develop an alternative to pattern scaling that allows for nonlinear spatio-temporal behaviour. We use an intermediate complexity AOGCM to perform an ensemble of simulations for a range of greenhouse gas concentration profiles and model parameters. We decompose climate change fields into a series of spatial patterns and then derive the functional dependence of the dominant patterns on model input. This allows us to rapidly reconstruct a good approximation to the simulated change from an arbitrary concentration profile (without the need for further simulation). The efficiency of the approach paves the way for incorporating improved calculations of climate change into integrated assessment, including location-dependent estimates of uncertainty.

Item Type:

Journal Article

2010 American Geophysical Union

ISSN:

0094-8276

External Project Funding Details:

Funded Project Name	Project ID	Funding Body
Not Set	Not Set	UK Natural Environmental Research Council through QUEST?DESIRE [grant number NE/E007600/1]
Not Set	Not Set	French MinistÃ¨re de lï¿½Écologie, de lï¿½Ã‰nergie, du DÃ©veloppement durable et de la Mer through the Programme Gestion et Impacts du Changement Climatique [grant number G.3?0006032]

Keywords:

emulation; dimension reduction; GENIE-2; integrated assessment

Academic Unit/Department:

Science
Science > Environment, Earth and Ecosystems

Interdisciplinary Research Centre:

Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR)

Item ID:

24659

Depositing User:

Philip Holden

Date Deposited:

12 Nov 2010 11:15