Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling

Holden, P. B. and Edwards, N. R. (2010). Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(21) L21707.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045137

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models are widely used tools for the evaluation of environmental policy. In order to include uncertainty estimates or derive optimal policies, highly efficient calculations of global change are generally required, often using pattern scaling to derive spatial distributions of change. Here we develop an alternative to pattern scaling that allows for nonlinear spatio-temporal behaviour. We use an intermediate complexity AOGCM to perform an ensemble of simulations for a range of greenhouse gas concentration profiles and model parameters. We decompose climate change fields into a series of spatial patterns and then derive the functional dependence of the dominant patterns on model input. This allows us to rapidly reconstruct a good approximation to the simulated change from an arbitrary concentration profile (without the need for further simulation). The efficiency of the approach paves the way for incorporating improved calculations of climate change into integrated assessment, including location-dependent estimates of uncertainty.

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