The distribution of time to extinction in subcritical branching processes: applications to outbreeaks of infectious diseases

Farrington, C. P. and Grant, A. D. (1999). The distribution of time to extinction in subcritical branching processes: applications to outbreeaks of infectious diseases. Journal of Applied Probability, 36(3) pp. 771–779.

DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1239/jap/1032374633

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Abstract

We consider the distribution of the number of generations to extinction in subcritical branching processes, with particular emphasis on applications to the spread of infectious diseases. We derive the generation distributions for processes with Bernoulli, geometric and Poisson offspring, and discuss some of their distributional and inferential properties. We present applications to the spread of infection in highly vaccinated populations, outbreaks of enteric fever, and person-to-person transmission of human monkeypox

Item Type:	Journal Article
Copyright Holders:	1999 Applied Probrability Trust
ISSN:	0021-9002
Keywords:	Branching process; power series family; extinction; generation distribution; maximum likelihood estimation; epidemic model
Academic Unit/Department:	Mathematics, Computing and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Item ID:	23916
Depositing User:	Sarah Frain
Date Deposited:	20 Apr 2011 15:01
Last Modified:	20 Apr 2011 15:01
URI:	http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/23916

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