The Open UniversitySkip to content
 

Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

Edwards, Neil; Cameron, David and Rougier, Jonathan (2011). Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model. Climate Dynamics, 37(7-8) pp. 1469–1482.

Full text available as:
[img]
Preview
PDF (Accepted Manuscript) - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Download (541Kb)
DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0921-0
Google Scholar: Look up in Google Scholar

Abstract

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwaterforcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters.

Item Type: Journal Article
Copyright Holders: 2010 Springer
ISSN: 1432-0894
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
Not SetNE/C522268/1NERC (Natural Environment Research Council)
Keywords: uncertainty; probabilistic prediction; thermohaline circulation; intermediate complexity climate model
Academic Unit/Department: Science > Environment, Earth and Ecosystems
Science
Interdisciplinary Research Centre: Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR)
Item ID: 23425
Depositing User: Neil Edwards
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2010 09:37
Last Modified: 23 Feb 2016 21:33
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/23425
Share this page:

Altmetrics

Scopus Citations

Download history for this item

These details should be considered as only a guide to the number of downloads performed manually. Algorithmic methods have been applied in an attempt to remove automated downloads from the displayed statistics but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of the figures.

▼ Automated document suggestions from open access sources

Actions (login may be required)

Policies | Disclaimer

© The Open University   + 44 (0)870 333 4340   general-enquiries@open.ac.uk