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Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

Edwards, Neil; Cameron, David and Rougier, Jonathan (2011). Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model. Climate Dynamics, 37(7-8) pp. 1469–1482.

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DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0921-0
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Abstract

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwaterforcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters.

Item Type: Journal Article
Copyright Holders: 2010 Springer
ISSN: 1432-0894
Project Funding Details:
Funded Project NameProject IDFunding Body
Not SetNE/C522268/1NERC
Keywords: uncertainty; probabilistic prediction; thermohaline circulation; intermediate complexity climate model
Academic Unit/Department: Science > Environment, Earth and Ecosystems
Interdisciplinary Research Centre: Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research (CEPSAR)
Item ID: 23425
Depositing User: Neil Edwards
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2010 09:37
Last Modified: 21 Mar 2014 04:58
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/23425
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