Whitaker, H. J. and Farrington, C. P.
(2004).
| DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link: | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006-341X.2004.00210.x |
|---|---|
| Google Scholar: | Look up in Google Scholar |
Abstract
We develop methods for the analysis of infectious disease data when age-specific contact rates vary over time. Our methods are valid when contact rates vary slowly on the time scale of the infection process, and are applicable to a variety of data types including serial seroprevalence surveys and case reports. The methods exploit approximate endemic equilibria, and require numerical solution of an associated integral equation in age and time. We also estimate summary statistics such as time-dependent analogs of the basic reproduction number and critical immunization threshold. We illustrate the methods with data on varicella (chickenpox) in the United Kingdom.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
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| Copyright Holders: | 2004 International Biometric Society |
| ISSN: | 1541-0420 |
| Keywords: | contact rates; infectious disease; reproduction number; serological survey |
| Academic Unit/Department: | Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) |
| Item ID: | 2277 |
| Depositing User: | Paddy Farrington |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Jun 2006 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Aug 2016 12:52 |
| URI: | http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/2277 |
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