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Farrington, C. P.; Kanaan, M. N. and Gay, N. J.
(2003).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/4.2.279
Abstract
Mass vaccination programmes aim to maintain the effective reproduction number R of an infection below unity. We describe methods for monitoring the value of R using surveillance data. The models are based on branching processes in which R is identified with the offspring mean. We derive unconditional likelihoods for the offspring mean using data on outbreak size and outbreak duration. We also discuss Bayesian methods, implemented by Metropolis–Hastings sampling. We investigate by simulation the validity of the models with respect to depletion of susceptibles and under-ascertainment of cases. The methods are illustrated using surveillance data on measles in the USA.
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About
- Item ORO ID
- 2275
- Item Type
- Journal Item
- ISSN
- 1468-4357
- Academic Unit or School
-
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) - Copyright Holders
- © 2003 Oxford University Press
- Depositing User
- Paddy Farrington