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Exploring rail futures using scenarios: experience and potential

Potter, Stephen (2007). Exploring rail futures using scenarios: experience and potential. In: Proceedings of the Universities Transport Study Group Conference, Jan 2007, University of Leeds, UK.

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In 1995 the author of this paper undertook a scenario exercise for British Rail to identify priorities for rail science and technology developments under the new privatised regime. Four marketbased 2010 scenarios were developed for UK rail transport: 1) cost driven; 2) quality driven, 3)technology driven and 4) environmentally driven. These helped to identify areas of strategic R&D that were needed to improve rail’s competitiveness.

It is now over a decade since this scenario exercise took place. This paper, updating an earlier review (Potter and Roy, 2000), revisits the 1995 scenarios and compares them to what actual market strategies emerged within the privatised railway industry. It explores whether the four scenarios did succeed in capturing the range of market responses that emerged from rail privatisation and what lessons this contains for the use of scenarios transport research.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Copyright Holders: 2007 The Author
Extra Information: Paper and abstract are available in electronic form only at the UTSG Conference site at

This is the first, Plenary, paper.
Keywords: scenario planning; technology foresight; railways; transport research;
Academic Unit/School: Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) > Engineering and Innovation
Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)
Item ID: 19343
Depositing User: Stephen Potter
Date Deposited: 24 Dec 2009 12:03
Last Modified: 07 Dec 2018 12:35
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