Gay, Nigel J.; De Serres, Gaston; Farrington, Paddy; Redd, Susan B. and Papania, Mark J.
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The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R<1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. These results demonstrate that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Copyright Holders:||2004 University of Chicago Press|
|Academic Unit/Department:||Mathematics, Computing and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics|
|Depositing User:||Colin Smith|
|Date Deposited:||22 Dec 2009 11:10|
|Last Modified:||02 Dec 2010 20:43|
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