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Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities

O'Hagan, A.; Buck, C. E.; Daneshkhah, A.; Eiser, J. R.; Garthwaite, P. H.; Jenkinson, D. J.; Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. Chichester: John Wiley.

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Abstract

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.

Item Type: Authored Book
ISBN: 0-470-02999-4, 978-0-470-02999-2
Academic Unit/Department: Mathematics, Computing and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Item ID: 17948
Depositing User: Sara Griffin
Date Deposited: 20 Aug 2009 14:01
Last Modified: 02 Dec 2010 20:36
URI: http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/17948
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