Garthwaite, Paul H. and Dickey, James M.
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This paper describes a method for choosing a natural conjugate prior distribution for a normal linear sampling model. A person using the method to quantify his/her opinions performs specified elicitation tasks. The hyperparameters of the conjugate distribution are estimated from the elicited values. The method is designed to require elicitation tasks that people can perform competently and introduces a type of task not previously reported. A property of the method is that the assessed variance matrices are certain to be positive definite. The method is sufficiently simple to implement with an interactive computer program on a microcomputer.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Copyright Holders:||1988 Royal Statistical Society|
|Keywords:||Bayesian regression analysis; elicitation tasks; normal linear model; prior assessment; prior distributions; probability assessment; probability elicitation|
|Academic Unit/Department:||Mathematics, Computing and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics|
|Depositing User:||Sara Griffin|
|Date Deposited:||20 Aug 2009 11:31|
|Last Modified:||02 Dec 2010 20:36|
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