Garthwaite, P. H.
|DOI (Digital Object Identifier) Link:||http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(89)90050-2|
|Google Scholar:||Look up in Google Scholar|
Subjects were questioned about four regression models in which the dependent variable (y) was linearly related to a single independent variable (x). Drawing graphs to help quantify their opinions, subjects assessed 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 fractiles of their distributions for (a) the expected value of y at various x-values and (b) the expected change in y as x varied. Their opinions were generally underconfident with more than 60% of the interquartile ranges containing correct values. For task (a), proportions containing correct values were greater when x was toward the center of its range and for (b) they were greater when x varied over only a small part of its range. Both symmetric and asymmetric distributions were fitted to subjects' assessments and although assessments were sometimes markedly skew, a scoring rule judged the symmetric distributions to be slightly the more accurate.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Copyright Holders:||1989 Elsevier|
|Academic Unit/Department:||Mathematics, Computing and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Mathematics, Computing and Technology
|Depositing User:||Sara Griffin|
|Date Deposited:||20 Aug 2009 11:01|
|Last Modified:||15 Jan 2016 11:43|
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